Europe - Six Nations
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by Steve Ashfield | in Six Nations Predictions
England begin the fourth set of Six Nations fixtures in third place. This weekend sees them play their penultimate game as they host fifth-placed Italy at Twickenham. Can they keep their hopes of winning the title alive? Here's our match prediction.
England are six points behind leaders France and will want a win with a bonus point from this game against Italy. That will take us into a thrilling final weekend of the tournament with England playing in Wales and France home to Scotland. Two of their three matches have been won so far in this Six Nations tournament. and after this match, their final game is away against Wales who are bottom of the table.
Italy are fifth in the table and have won one of their three matches in this year's Six Nations. That was a home victory over Wales but their last match was a visit to the bad old days of heavy losses as they were beaten 73-24 at home by France. Can they get a better result this weekend?
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The Best Betting Odds for England v Italy Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.03 | 51 | 17 |
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1.04 | 51 | 12 |
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|
1.03 | 28 | 14.4 |
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1.03 | 28 | 14.4 |
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1.08 | 30 | 9.5 |
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England vs Italy Form
England and Italy's standings in the Six Nations
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
20 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 74 |
|
5
|
5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -82 |
England and Italy Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
22 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
8 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
1 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
24 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
17 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
16 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
22 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
8 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
24 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
17 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
16 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
9 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
1 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
13 Jul 2024 - Test Matchs
6 Jul 2024 - Test Matchs
22 Jun 2024 - Test Matchs
16 Mar 2024 - Six Nations
24 Feb 2024 - Six Nations
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
23 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
8 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
1 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
23 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
17 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
9 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
23 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
8 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
23 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
17 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
9 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
9 Mar 2024 - Six Nations
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
1 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
21 Jul 2024 - Test Matchs
11 Jul 2024 - Test Matchs
5 Jul 2024 - Test Matchs
16 Mar 2024 - Six Nations
25 Feb 2024 - Six Nations
England vs Italy Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
3 Feb 2024 - Six Nations
12 Feb 2023 - Six Nations
13 Feb 2022 - Six Nations
13 Feb 2021 - Six Nations
31 Oct 2020 - Six Nations
9 Mar 2019 - Six Nations
England - Italy: Form Analysis
England play their third and final home game in this season's Six Nations. They have won the other two but could so easily have lost both matches. France were beaten 26-25 and then England regained the Calcutta Cup with a win over Scotland, again by a single point.
The comeback kings.
They trailed in both of those matches but fought back to get the wins. That's a reversal of form in 2024 when they used to take the lead and then end up losing the match. They needed those victories after beginning the Six Nations with a loss in Dublin.
Italy turned a corner last year with a win and a draw to avoid 'winning' another wooden spoon. They began this year's Six Nations with a loss in Scotland but then beat Wales at home.
However, their most recent game saw them lose 73-24 at home to France and will want to massively improve on that showing. Playing England and getting a first ever win would certainly achieve that.
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England & Italy Squad Analysis
England must accept this is a match they dare not lose. They have made a change at full-back with Marcus Smith dropping down to the bench and being replaced by Elliot Daly. Another change sees Fraser Dingwall playing his first match for England in over a year.
He will be playing in the centre with Ollie Lawrence and out of the starting line-up is Henry Slade who isn't even on the bench. Five of the seven backs who will be playing for England in this match play for reigning English Premiership champions Northampton Saints. Hopefully, they will play better away from their home ground than they have been doing in this season's English Premiership.
It'll be a big match for Jamie George who will be earning his 100th cap. England will want to score plenty of points against Italy. After three games their points difference is a disappointing -3.
Plenty of changes for Italy.
It's a big match for Italy who will be looking to avoid another heavy defeat. They have made several changes for this match against England. Monty Ioane is back from injury with Ange Capuozzo moving to full-back.
That means Tommaso Allan will be on the bench despite being the leading points scorer after three weeks of this tournament. Matt Gallagher is in at left wing with Stephen Varney being their new scrum-half and Ross Vincent at number eight.
England - Italy Key Points
- England have won all 31 of their previous matches against Italy.
- Italy have lost two of their three games in this season's Six Nations.
- England have won their two home matches against France and Scotland.
- England beat Italy by 17 points in their last meeting at Twickenham.
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Our England vs Italy Prediction
England have had a tough Six Nations so far but have won two of their three matches. They lost their opening match but have won the two that have followed, both by a single-point margin. We don't expect this match to have a thrilling climax.
Italy were competitive in their first two matches and beat Wales at home. Then came the disastrous loss to France in Rome. Several changes have been made by them but our main England v Italy prediction is England to win on a -16.5 points handicap.
England vs Italy - Other Interesting Predictions
Tommy Freeman to score a try
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England vs Italy match : Frequently asked questions
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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