UFC Predictions & Betting tips
Take a look at our free MMA - UFC predictions page. Here you will find betting tips, how the UFC works, and plenty of additional information to help with your sports betting.
UFC Presentation and Predictions
Since the first-ever UFC promotion made an appearance on Sky Sports way back in 2002, the franchise has spread like wildfire and now has over 600 fans and 155 million social media followers across the globe. As the UFC continues to attract new license holders and broadcast partnerships, it is unsurprising that bookmakers have seized the opportunity presented by MMA as a rapidly growing sport.
As a result, sports predictions around the UFC have also grown exponentially! With eight categories for men and three for women, a typical UFC evening generally stages around 10 fights each weekend throughout the year. These events are typically separated into two parts - the preliminary card and the main card - both of which are a build-up to the ‘main event’ that features the biggest fight of the night.
Every week, our UFC experts work tirelessly to provide free UFC match tips and predictions, to help our readers identify the best UFC bets for the upcoming weekend, as well as improve their chances of backing the winner. Don't hesitate to follow our MMA predictions!
Beginners to sports betting - How does the UFC Work?
The Ultimate Fighting Championship, more commonly known as the UFC, is the most recognised mixed martial arts (MMA) organisation globally. The franchise employs almost 2,800 official fighters (around 2,500 men and 300 women) divided into a total of 11 categories, including eight for men and three for women.
The eight men’s categories are flyweight, bantamweight, featherweight, lightweight, middleweight, light heavyweight and heavyweight, while the three women’s are strawweight, flyweight and rooster weight. The fighters battle it out to climb the rankings in their category, with the ultimate goal of winning the championship belt, which is awarded to the best UFC fighter in his or her category.
However, not all fights will have the same appeal since titles and belts are not won or lost every weekend. Challengers need to earn their shot at the champions of their category by beating other fighters competing under the same weight class.
As mentioned earlier, a typical UFC fight night consists of around 10 bouts starting in 30-minute intervals and divided into two cards: the preliminary card and the main card. But what's the difference between the two cards? Well, matches on the main card are usually five rounds of five minutes each, while the fights on the secondary card go three rounds of five minutes each.
Notably, bookmakers typically only offer odds and betting markets for fights on the main card, covering all the best UFC competitors on display that evening.
Here are the outcomes that each fight can have:
- Submission (Sub): This is when the fighter submits his opponent to the ground and the latter can no longer move, the referee can stop the fight. Second possibility: the fighter on the ground signals that he/she can no longer compete and surrender. This is known as a ‘tap-out’.
- Knock-Out (KO): Here a fighter knocks his opponent unconscious with a blow, leading the referee to intervene and stop the fight.
- Technical knockout (TKO): This happens when the referee decides that one of the fighters is no longer to defend themselves, or a doctor deems that the fighter can no longer participate due to an injury or wound.
- Disqualification (DQ): A disqualification is a decision by the referee following an illegal blow by a fighter.
- No contest (NC): This is when a fight has no winner following an unintentional illegal strike by a fighter who has knocked out his opponent, or if both fighters are knocked out at the same time.
- Judges' decision: In this instance, both fighters are still standing at the end of the fight and the judges decide the outcome by using points awarded across the match. Outcomes can be a win or a draw.
You now have all the basic information needed on how the UFC and its fights work to start making your UFC predictions!
How to make good UFC fight predictions?
To give yourself the best possible chance of making winning UFC predictions every weekend, check out our tips on what to consider when placing your bets on matches inside the octagon.
- Favour the favourite in the fight
- Have an account with several bookmakers
- Find out about the fighters' form and career records
- Compare the bookmakers' odds
- Analyse the style of the fighters
Favour the favourite in the fight
Owing to how the UFC ranking system is structured, holding a high rank in a specific division is incredibly difficult, and fighters who are among the top 10 or 15 in the world are typically battle-tested and have an upper hand over lower-ranked opponents. Our advice is therefore to favour the favourite in most fights!
To identify the favourite in a fight, take a look at the odds available from the bookmakers, and consider if they are justifiable based on the fighter's rank and recent record.
As is often the case in combat and individual participant sports like boxing or tennis, odds on the favourite may not be as attractive as on the underdog, but they are safer! You can also lean on the knowledge of our experts and their UFC predictions to steer you in the right direction.
Have an account with several bookmakers
This tip runs true with any sport and for every sports bettor. While not all fights are covered by every bookmaker, it is important to analyse the odds across several sites to ensure you get the best value, as well as potentially spot any market deviations.
We strongly suggest that you open a player account with several bookmakers so that you can lock in odds at their highest or when you identify a solid bet. Additionally, doing this allows you to take advantage of the various generous welcome offers that bookmakers offer new and existing customers, which could enable you to place a wager with minimal or no financial exposure!
Find out about the fighters' form and career records
Another common-known good practice among seasoned bettors is to take into account a fighter’s recent form and career records. Doing so will help you unpack a plethora of valuable information, such as how a fighter has been performing in specific periods as well as against certain opponents. It will also show you whether a fighter is more prone to striking or grappling, which could indicate whether they have a better chance of earning a KO/TKO or a submission.
As an example: Two fighters may have the same overall record of 10 wins and five losses, but by analysing the stats, you may find that Fighter A has won five in a row, while Fighter B may have lost five in a row. This same logic can be applied to how a fighter has won or lost their previous matches. This is a crucial element in placing winning bets, so be sure to take it into account!
Compare the bookmakers' odds
Bookmakers spend hours, days and even weeks analysing fighters' strengths, weaknesses, and histories, to come up with odds to allocate on them, and this is something that you should leverage whenever possible.
Next, not all bookmakers cover every fight, which means that if you are only using one bookmaker, you could miss out on an opportunity to bet on a fighter who has a very good chance of winning their next match. Therefore, having player accounts with several bookmakers helps ensure that you can find the fight or market you want to bet on without hassle.
Finally, having more than one bookmaker account allows you to compare the odds between betting sites and choose the one that represents the highest potential return. For example: In a match between England’s Leon Edwards and Nigerian-born Kamaru Usman, Betway may offer odds of 1.80 for the Englishman to win, while Bet365 may be putting up odds of 1.85. In this case, having more than one bookmaker account will be a massive advantage as it will allow you to secure better odds, and of course, potentially higher returns on your wager!
Analyse the style of the fighters
As briefly touched on earlier, each UFC fight provides several betting markets in addition to the win-or-loss option. The next-most popular bet includes how the match will end (submission, KO, technical KO, disqualification or decision), and placing a confident wager on this market requires knowledge of a fighter's style and how they won (or lost) their previous fights.
Some fighters rely on brute force and striking power to knock out their opponents early, while others may rely on stamina and wearing down their rivals, potentially to submit them into tapping out. Having an understanding of how a fighter is likely to look to win a match is crucial to predicting outcomes successfully.
Our experts take all this very same advice, as well as their personal opinions into account before offering you their selection of predictions.
What not to do for your UFC predictions
In addition to our tips, here are a few common mistakes you should avoid at all costs when placing wagers on the UFC:
- Placing bets without analysing the fighters
- Betting solely on the odds and disregarding the challenger
- Failing to compare odds from several bookmakers
- Overlooking what is at stake in the match (eg. a title or number-one contender spot)
- Chasing big odds on underdogs
By using our tips and avoiding these common pitfalls, you are sure to improve your sports betting success.
UFC predictions: the statistics you need to know
In the UFC, as in every sport, certain trends emerge naturally and should be taken into account when making your predictions. While stats won’t tell you the outcome of a fight, it will steer you in the right direction and improve your chances of placing a good bet. The figures given below only cover fights since the beginning of 2024, i.e. 204 fights:
- Victory by KO: 31.9%
- Victory by submission: 16.2%
- Victory by decision: 50%
- No contest: 1.5%
- Disqualification: 0.5%
These statistics, combined with your analysis of each fighter, can give you a clearer indication of how a match may end. For example, Kamaru Usman has won nine fights by knockout and only one by submission, therefore, backing the Nigerian-American to win by KO/TKO would likely be a smarter option than placing a bet on him to submit his opponent.
As you can see, one out of every two fights in the UFC in 2024 goes the distance, while No Contest and disqualification outcomes are rare. If you're having trouble making up your mind, don't forget these statistics!
In a nutshell: how do you make the right UFC predictions?
Placing winning bets on the UFC requires a combination of the factors mentioned above, such as implementing our expert tips on analysing fighter form and comparing bookmakers' odds, while avoiding the common mistakes bettors tend to make in their betting decisions. There are also PFL predictions to follow if you are a true fan of MMA!
Don’t forget, you also have access to UFC predictions from our experts, who'll give you a selection of the best opportunities for upcoming matches. All advice and tips are free of charge and come from an expert UFC punter!
All the images in this article come from the IMAGO website.
UFC : Frequently Asked Questions
Depending on where you’re located, the UFC have secured a variety of broadcasting partnerships to ensure that fans and bettors can enjoy all the entertainment from inside the octagon. In the UK, TNT Sports and Discovery+ hold the TV rights for UFC events, with occasional events to be shown live on TNT Sports Box Office. Viewers across Africa are able to tune in to DSTV and SuperSport Action for their UFC viewing requirements, while the UFC Fight Pass is available to viewers worldwide and covers the widest range of fights from preliminary to main card bouts for each weight class in the franchise.
As with any mainstream sport, UFC fighters’ salaries can vary depending on several factors, but the main contributor is the level of media coverage they receive. The least publicised fighters on a main-card event can receive around $300,000, while the main-event participants can pocket as much as $1,500,000, excluding additional fight bonuses which can fluctuate between $10,000 and $50,000.
You cannot speak about the UFC without mentioning some of the biggest personalities and characters in the sport, and one name that springs to mind almost immediately is none other than Conor McGregor. “Notorious” has been one of the poster boys of the UFC since he debuted in 2013 and he has gone on to garner millions of fans all across the globe. Salford-born Tom Aspinall has rocketed to fame in recent times after taking the interim Heavyweight title, and Dricus Du Plessis has become Africa’s knight in shining armour after claiming the UFC Middleweight belt from American Sean Strickland.
