PFL Predictions & Betting tips
Check out our free MMA - PFL prediction page below. Here you will find betting tips, how the PFL works, and plenty of additional information to help with your sports betting.
PFL presentation and predictions
While the UFC still reigns supreme as the most well-known form of MMA globally, the Professional Fighters League (PFL) is rapidly rising in popularity in recent years.Founded in 2017, the PFL is an American mixed martial arts league with six categories, including five for men and one for women. Its surge in popularity is attributable to the franchise bringing in some of the biggest names in the world while also building a greater reputation by acquiring Bellator, the second-largest MMA league globally.
Each fight event is divided into two cards, the preliminary card and the main card. The main card features the matches between the best and highest-ranked fighters in the PFL, culminating in the main event, which is the most important fight of the night. The franchise stages several PFL evenings each month and you'll be able to make your PFL predictions with the help of our experts, who will be giving you their best advice throughout the season! Don't forget that when it comes to MMA predictions, the PFL is not to be left behind!
Bet on PFLBeginner sports bettors - how does the PFL work?
The PFL is an American mixed martial arts league that was founded by Donn Davis in 2017. In November 2023, the organisation bought out one of its competitors, Bellator, and became the most powerful MMA organisation behind the UFC. Unlike its main MMA rival, the PFL operates on a championship system that sees 10 fighters battling it out in a regular season before competing for the title in the playoffs, which are reserved for the top four fighters at the end of each season.
There are six categories in the PFL: Featherweight 66kg, Lightweight 70kg, Welterweight 77kg, Light Heavyweight 93kg and Heavyweight 120kg. The final weight class is the Women's Flyweight 57kg.
A typical PFL evening features 10 fights divided into two parts: the preliminary card (three rounds of five minutes) and the main card (five rounds of five minutes). Similar to most MMA events, only the odds for the PFL main card are available on sports betting sites, but bookmakers are likely to offer more markets on all fights in the near future as the franchise continues to grow.
Here are the outcomes that each fight can have:
- Submission (Sub): This is when the fighter submits his opponent to the ground and the latter can no longer move, the referee can stop the fight. Second possibility: the fighter on the ground signals that he/she can no longer compete and admits defeat. This is known as a ‘tap-out’.
- Knock-Out (KO): Here a fighter knocks his opponent out with a blow, leading the referee to intervene and stop the fight.
- Technical knockout (TKO): This happens when the referee decides that one of the fighters is no longer able to defend themselves, or a doctor deems that the fighter can no longer safely participate due to an injury or wound.
- Disqualification (DQ): A disqualification is a decision by the referee following an illegal blow by a fighter.
- No contest (NC): This is when a fight has no winner following an unintentional illegal strike by a fighter who has knocked out his opponent, or if both fighters are knocked out at the same time.
- Judges' decision: Here, both fighters make it to the end of the fight and the judges decide on the winner by using points awarded across the match. Outcomes can include a win or a draw.
Unlike the UFC, the PFL is a championship (similar to a league-type format) where fighters score points according to the victories they achieve that accumulate over the season. Here's how the PFL distributes ranking points:
- Victory: 3 points
- Defeat: 0 points
- Victory in round 1: 3 bonus points
- Victory in round 2: 2 bonus points
- Victory in round 3: 1 bonus point
- Victory in round 4 or 5: 0 bonus points
As an example - if a fighter wins their bout in the first round, they will be awarded six points (three points for the victory as well as three bonus points) while a victory in the third round will earn the winner four points (three points for the victory and one bonus point).
Understanding this scoring system is crucial when making your PFL prediction!
Bet on PFLHow to make good predictions on PFL fights?
Now that you know how the PFL works, here are our tips to help you improve your PFL predictions and increase your chances of winning:
- Follow the career development of the fighters and their current form
- Have an account with several bookmakers
- Understand the way competitors fight
- Compare the odds on sports betting sites
Follow the career development of the fighters and their current form
Arguably the most important of all tips in placing successful bets is knowing the basics about the fighter that you intend to wager on. Analysing a fighter's past record, recent form and current fitness levels will unpack a plethora of information that will be extremely useful in your betting decisions.
For example, A fighter may have an impressive record of 10-3, but those losses may have come in their last three fights which could indicate that the fighter is not in the best shape at present or is suffering from a potential injury. These are crucial factors to consider when placing your bets.
Have an account with several bookmakers
While MMA is not new to the world of betting, the PFL is, therefore not all bookmakers offer betting markets on every fight. Additionally, PFL predictions are not as easily found as UFC predictions since many MMA experts favour the latter due to its wider reach and media coverage.
However, this is where having several bookmaker accounts can be a major advantage as you will be sure to find at least a few that do cover the PFL and its betting markets. Additionally, you will be able to take advantage of the generous welcome bonuses that bookmakers offer new customers, such as free bets or deposit matches, which allow you to place your first wager at low to no financial risk.
Understand the way competitors fight
As is the case in any combat sport, understanding how a competitor fights is extremely important when trying to decide which way the outcome of a match may go. Some of the key information to look out for includes how a fighter typically wins (or loses) matches. For example, if a fighter has 10 knockouts under their belt and 1 submission, it typically suggests that he/she prefers striking and favouring a KO/TKO outcome is likely a smarter choice than betting on a submission win.
Consulting the fighters’ track record once again comes into play here, while it is also good practice to factor in the quality of opponents they have fought in the past. Finally, always ensure that you consider what the fight means - some fights are staged for ranking spots, while others may be title fights, and the ambitions of fighters differ in each of these situations.
Compare sports betting site odds
Bookmakers leave no stone unturned when analysing fighters' strengths, weaknesses, and histories, to come up with odds to allocate on them, and this is something that you should leverage whenever possible.
Not all bookmakers cover every fight, which means that if you are only using one bookmaker, you could miss out on an opportunity to bet on a fighter who has a very good chance of winning their next match. Therefore, having player accounts with several bookmakers helps ensure that you lock in your bet as soon as you identify a clear betting opportunity.
Finally, having more than one bookmaker account allows you to compare the odds between betting sites and choose the one that represents the highest potential return. For example: In the upcoming match between Brent Primus and Gadzhi Rabadanov, 22Bet may offer odds of 1.70 for the American to win, while Boylesports may allocate odds of 1.80. In this case, having more than one bookmaker account will be a massive advantage as it will allow you to secure better odds, and of course, potentially higher returns on your wager!
All the while, SportyTrader’s experts will be right here, throughout the season, to provide their free PFL predictions and insights to help you improve your betting decisions.
Bet on PFLWhat not to do for your PFL predictions
While leveraging tips are extremely helpful, there are also a few common mistakes you should avoid at all costs when placing wagers on the PFL:
- Failing to analyse both fighter's records, form and fitness
- Betting on big names without analysing their opponent
- Not comparing the odds on several sports betting sites
- Disregarding what is at stake in the fight
- Chasing big odds and huge upsets in the hope of higher returns
With the help of these tips, you now have all the information you need to make your PFL prediction!
Bet on PFLPFL prediction: the statistics you need to know
Have you ever heard the old saying “The stats never lie?” Well, this adage runs true in the PFL and using statistics as the basis for your betting decisions is something that should be done whenever possible. Here are some figures for fights since 2023 (559 fights):
- Victory by KO: 32%
- Victory by submission: 19%
- Victory by decision: 46.5%
- No Contest and Disqualification: 2.5%
While using stats in your betting decisions does not guarantee that every bet you place will be a winning one, it does provide logic around how to wager. For example, Englishman Tom Breese has submitted 13 fighters in his 18-win career and has only knocked out four. Thus, betting on the Birmingham native to win by tapping out his opponent will, in theory, give you a better chance of winning your bet.
It's also worth noting that almost half of all PFL fights end in a decision by the judges. This is an important factor to take into account when making your MMA predictions for PFL fights!
Bet on PFLIn a nutshell: how do you make the right PFL prediction?
To begin with, since the PFL is not as widely known as some of its competitors, you must familiarise yourself with how the PFL works as well as the fighters that compete in the franchise. Once that’s done, follow the tips and avoid the common mistakes laid out above and you will be able to improve your betting decisions as well as your win rate.
And, of course, you will have SportyTrader with you every step of the way, with our experts frequently providing free predictions for PFL events. There are also UFC predictions to follow if you are a true fan of MMA!
All the images in this article come from the IMAGO website.
PFL : Frequently Asked Questions
The PFL have secured broadcasting partnerships with several companies worldwide to ensure that fans can enjoy all the action anywhere across the globe. In the UK and most of Europe, DAZN is home to PFL, while in Africa, DSTV and Supersport are your go-to options to follow select matches on a PFL evening. In India and the majority of Asia, Fancode covers all the main event matches year-round.
This is a tough question to answer since the PFL is extremely competitive and the standings in the competition change so frequently. However, this season, Denis Goltsov, Impa Kasanganay, Shamil Musaev and Brent Primus are among those who are leading the way in their respective weight classes. Additionally, MMA followers will notice names like Tyler Diamond, Clay Collard and Anthony Pettis on the roster, all of whom previously applied their trade in the UFC.
It's hard to say how much a PFL fighter earns, as the prize money varies from fight to fight and depends heavily on the media reach each event garners. For example, in 2023 Tim Caron, fighting out of Manchester, took home $10,000 for his PFL 4 match against Impa Kasanganay, who earned $16,000. At the higher end of the spectrum, Clay Collard pocketed a whopping $62,000 at PFL 5, while his opponent Stevie Ray received $15,000. Aside from their salary and fight bonuses, the PFL guarantees its fighters earnings up to $1 million if they win the finals.
