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Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Betting Tips - MLB
by Joseph King | in MLB Predictions
The Boston Red Sox will attempt to put an end to their current losing streak when they host the Miami Marlins at Fenway Park. Boston sits dead-last in the AL East, baseball’s toughest division, with a 40-41 record. Miami, on the other hand, are second in the NL East and are 13 games above .500. They trail the first-place Braves by 6.5 games but hold a four game lead over the Phillies in third. This is the final game of a three game series between the two with the visiting Marlins having won the first two.
Boston has now lost their last four consecutive games in addition to six of their last seven overall. They lost 6-2 to the Marlins yesterday which was preceded by a heavy 10-1 defeat on Tuesday. While the 16 runs given up to Miami in the previous two games is certainly worrying, Boston’s bats aren’t doing them any favors. The Red Sox have scored just 11 runs over their last six games for an average of 1.83 runs per game over that stretch. They’ll send out Brayan Bello to the mound who is 5-4 on the year with a solid 3.27 ERA. The 24-year-old righty has been sharp, allowing only two earned runs over his last two starts, totaling 13 and two thirds innings of work.
The Marlins come into this one riding a four game winning streak and will look to complete the series sweep over the Red Sox. Miami has been in a strong vein of form overall and have now won seven of their last 10 as they look to increase their lead in the Wildcard standings. The Marlins will start with Jesus Luzardo who is 6-5 with a 3.77 record on the year. Luzardo is coming off a quality start in his last appearance, pitching seven innings of shutout baseball and giving up only two hits. He’s been superb when playing at home this season but it has been a different story in his away starts.
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Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Form
Boston Red Sox and Miami Marlins's standings in the MLB
Teams | % | P | W | L |
---|---|---|---|---|
13
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0.519 | 162 | 84 | 78 |
19
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0.481 | 162 | 78 | 84 |
Boston Red Sox and Miami Marlins Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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3/6 (50%)
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
20 Jun 2023 - MLB
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
24 Jun 2023 - MLB
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
24 Jun 2023 - MLB
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
26 Apr 2023 - MLB
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Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
17 Sep 2020 - MLB
16 Sep 2020 - MLB
15 Sep 2020 - MLB
Boston Red Sox - Miami Marlins Key Points
- Luzardo has been much worse starting on the road this season than at home, with a 5.45 ERA away compared to 2.65 at home.
- The Red Sox have a team OPS of .764 this season against left-handed pitchers, the ninth-best in the MLB.
- Only once in Bello’s last 10 starts has he allowed more than two earned runs in a game.
- Luzardo has given up 14 earned runs in his last four away starts.
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Our Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Despite these teams coming into this game on opposite sides of the spectrum form wise, we give the struggling Red Sox the edge in this one. We believe they have the pitching edge here with Bello against Luzardo given the latter’s struggles away from home. Bello has been wonderfully consistent this season and is in a good groove at the moment. For that reason, we’re going to target the pitching matchup here and stick with the first five innings line. Our Red Sox vs Marlins prediction is the Boston Red Sox to win the first five innings.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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