PBA Governors' Cup Predictions & Betting tips

PBA Governors' Cup 2024 Presentation and Predictions

2024-25 marks the 49th season in the PBA and sees the league return to the traditional three conference format. Similar to how South American football competitions work with the Apertura and Clausura structure, a normal league season in the Philippine Basketball Association is divided into three separate competitions, called “conferences'', with each winner considered to be league champions at the end of the season. Due to scheduling complications last year, the 2024 Governors' Cup will actually be the first of the three conferences for the 2024-25 season. The 2024 edition begins on 18 August and runs until late October 2024 with the conclusion of the Finals. Unlike the Philippine Cup which does not allow teams to field foreign players, the Governors’ Cup allows import players as long as they do not exceed 6 foot 6 inches (1.98m) in height.

The 22nd edition of the Governors’ Cup also marks a significant change in the competition's structure. Previously, the 12 competing teams were all placed in one large group, whereas now they will be divided into two groups of six teams each. Not only that, for the first time ever in the PBA, the Governors' Cup will include a 4-point line! There is also a change to the playoff structure, which we'll get into a bit later on.

We're only a few games into the start of the conference, meaning we have an action-packed season of PBA Governors' Cup basketball ahead! Keep reading below to see our thoughts as well as some invaluable betting tips and strategies to implement when making your next PBA predictions!  

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2024 PBA Prediction: Who Will Win the 2024 PBA Governors' Cup?

The PBA’s most successful team historically, the Beermen, are gearing up for another strong season. After winning the 2023-24 Commissioner's Cup back in February, the 29-time league champions will be looking to put an end to a Governors’ Cup drought and capture the title which has evaded them for nearly a decade. You’d have to go back to the 2014-15 campaign for the last time that San Miguel lifted this cup. 

TNT Tropang are the defending champions but could find it tough to repeat as champions. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is undoubtedly one of the league’s top players, but TNT don’t have the best supporting cast, which is even more pronounced now that Mikey Williams has departed the team.

San Miguel possess a stellar overall group of players centered around 8-time MVP June Mar Fajardo, Commissioner's Cup Finals MVP CJ Perez and new import Jordan Adams. The Beermen will likely finish as one of the league’s highest-scoring sides and should be able to overwhelm many teams with their impressive arsenal of weapons. Our 2024 Governors’ Cup prediction: San Miguel Beermen champions!

2024 PBA Governors' Cup Prediction: Odds on the favourites for the PBA championship

The odds for the winner of the 2024 PBA Governors’ Cup are not currently available by the bookmakers. In the meantime, be sure to check out bet365 to see the other betting markets that are available!

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Who Will Win the 2024 Governors' Cup Best Player of the Conference Award?

June Mar Fajardo is likely going to go down as the greatest every PBA player and for good reason. The 34-year-old is still playing at an elite level and most recently captured his eighth MVP award for the 2024 season as well as his 10th Best Player of the Conference award for the 2024 Philippine Cup.

Despite getting up there in age, Fajardo is showing no signs of slowing down. He averaged 18.9 points, 14.3 rebounds (second career-high) and 2.9 assists on 54% shooting in the most recent conference and there’s no reason to think he won’t put up those kinds of numbers again.

Therefore, our 2024 Governors’ Cup Best Player of the Conference prediction: June Mar Fajardo!

2024 Governors' Cup Best Player odds

The odds for the Best Player Award are not currently available by the bookmakers. In the meantime, be sure to check out bet365 to see the other betting markets that they have available for the Governors' Cup!

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Beginner’s Guide to How the Governors' Cup Works

In previous editions, the Governors’ Cup was a single league format which saw the top eight teams qualify for the postseason. The top two seeds would hold a “twice-to-beat” advantage, meaning that they only needed one win to advance to the semi-finals while the lower seed needed two wins. The rest of the seeds would play out a best-of-three series in the quarter-finals.

That’s all been done away with for the 2024 edition. Now, the 12 competing teams in the Governors’ Cup are divided into two groups. Each team will play their group members twice (as opposed to previously only playing each team once) for a total of 10 games per side. The top four teams in each group then advance to the quarter-finals.

The quarter-final stage will now be extended to a best-of-five series, while the semi-final also sees an extension to a best-of-seven series (previously best-of-five). The Finals remains best-of-seven, so no changes there.

Import players and the 4-pointer

As for the players, teams are allowed to contract import players who are at maximum 1.98m in height. Some of the notable import players include: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (TNT), Justin Brownlee (Barangay Ginebra), Glenn Robinson III (Magnolia), Allen Durham (Meralco) and Jordan Adams (San Miguel).

Lastly, the PBA has decided to implementing a long-range shot (ranging from 27 feet to 30 feet) which will count for four points if successful. Fans will notice that there are now two different lines behind the paint, representing both the typical 3-point line and the new 4-point line. It's another reason why this edition of the Governors' Cup is a must-see event!

Important Dates

Regular season: 18 August - 23 September 2024

Playoffs: 25 September - Late October (conclusion of Finals)

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How to Make Good Predictions on PBA Governors' Cup Games?

The PBA Governors' Cup regular season consists of only 10 games, meaning every single matchup has the potential for a playoff atmosphere with how little often seperates teams in the standings. Our experts at SportyTrader have gathered five key pieces of advice to keep in mind when making your PBA predictions:

• Situational spots and team news
• Take into account the form a team’s star
• Analyse detailed statistics 
• Take stock of a team's mental state
• Compare odds across bookmakers

Continue reading below for more information on each key point:

1. Situational spots and team news

Regardless of the sport or league that you are betting on, staying up to date on the latest injury news and updates is always of the upmost importance. This is especially true in a sport like basketball, where star players account for a significant amount of the offensive and defensive responsibilities. The complexion of a game can completely change should a team lose its dominant center in practice the day before a game, for example, as they'll have to adjust their game plan while the opposition will suddenly be presented with an opportunity to exploit a weakness.

Another piece of advice we can offer is to take note of where certain marquee matchups fall on the schedule. For example, Barangay Ginebra vs Magnolia, also known as the Manila Clasico, is considered to be the biggest rivalry in the league and is a highly anticipated matchup for both fans and players. The players might find it difficult to focus their attention on the game immediately preceding the rivalry clash, especially if they are going against a weaker team that they are expected to beat. This is often referred to as a "look-ahead spot". 

2. Take into account the form of a team’s star

As we briefly touched on in the previous section, key players in basketball often play a larger role in determining a team's success than other team sports such as football or baseball. This is in part down to there only being five players on the court at a time for each team. The influence a truly dominant player can exert in basketball is oftentimes more pronounced than other sports, especially if they excell at both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. This is especially important in the conferences which allow for import players, such as the Governors' Cup. It's not uncommon for a team's import to be their best player and thus shoulder added responsibly.

Justin Brownlee is a perfect example in this respect. The 6-time PBA champion and 3-time Best Import Award winner is fundamental to Barangay Ginebra's success. When analysing their games, you'll want to have a good understanding of how Brownlee has been playing. He is the type of player that opposing teams will have to dedicate a majority of their time in preparing for and will have teams devising full gameplans just to slow him down. When betting, you'll want to ensure these types of players are in good form both mentally and physically, as they will more often than not be the determining factor in outcome of the game.

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3. Analyse detailed statistics

It is also key that a bettor study the previous statistics of a PBA team before making a prediction involving them. There are plenty of advanced statistics to dig into, which can help provide a more clear picture of just how a team is performing. Of course, many will look at base-level stats such as points scored and points allowed. However, taking a look under the hood reveals useful information such as team pace (how many possessions a team has per 48 minutes), true shooting percentage, player-efficiency rating (PER), offensive and defensive rating among many others. The good news is that this information is widely available to be consumed! 

Live betting, or in-play betting, can be a great way to read the flow of a game and take advantage of some lopsided point spreads. Basketball is a game of runs and you’ll often see double digit leads be gained and lost over the course of a single match. A common situation that occurs is when the pre-match favourite falls behind early in the game. Often the live line will offer you great odds on the stronger team that is likely to soon go on their own scoring run. Looking for a way to both follow Governors' Cup games live while also having access to a number of detailed statistics? We've provided a convenient way to do just that so you can take advantage of those profitable betting lines! Head over to our PBA score today page to see for yourself! 

4. Take stock of a team’s mental state

Gauging a team’s motivation can also be a useful tool that, at times, is not fully accounted for by betting lines. Situational spots often come up, especially as the playoffs approach, where one team might have more incentive than their opponent to win. A team already out of contention will find it hard to play with the same intensity as a team that is battling for the final qualification spot. Similarly, a team that has already secured their position might choose to rest players in preparation for the more important elimination game coming up.

As we stated in the previous section, basketball is a game of runs. This is also true for many players, who will experience hot and cold shooting streaks throughout a season. Some players are able to return to their baseline faster than others, who may experience a prolonged stretch of poor shooting. It's important to be aware of which teams and players might be going through these kind of streaks as it will help you make more accurate predictions. Luckily for us, all of that information is easily obtained through the available statistics!

5. Compare odds across bookmakers

Our final piece of advice is one of the simplest yet often one of the most overlooked: line shopping! This simply means getting the best available odds for your bet. To do this, it is important to register accounts with several online sportsbooks as it is quite common to find differing odds for the same bet.

A few points on a spread or a slightly improve moneyline price can often make the difference between a winning bet and a losing bet - in the long run these small edges add up. Additionally, you'll be able to take advantage of the litany of great welcome bonuses that are on offer at the different sportsbooks! SportyTrader makes it easy to compare odds, access new bookmakers and take advantage of bonus offers when signing up.

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What Not to Do For Your PBA Governors' Cup Predictions

To give yourself the best chance at improving your bottom line when it comes to betting on the PBA Governors' Cup, there are a few pitfalls you will want to avoid. Here are some examples of what you should be cautious of:

• Not assessing the situational spot of the teams
• Disregarding the mental state and performance of a team’s star player.
• Not accounting for a team’s home vs away performances.
• Chasing your losses (ex. Betting triple your normal amount to ‘make up for’ two previous losses).
• Not practicing proper bankroll management (you should have a fixed bet amount within your overall betting funds). 
• Not comparing bookmakers to find the best possible odds on the market for your bet.
• Betting strictly on a team’s name and reputation and not accounting for recent performance and form.
• Only looking at final scores of previous games and not digging deeper into the underlying statistics.
• Disregarding the betting odds and not understanding the implied probability behind them.
• Blindly betting on your favourite team.

More than a few beginner and experienced bettors have fallen victim to one or multiple of the above habits. If you can eliminate them from your betting process and approach each game with clear, rational analysis, you’ll greatly increase your chances of turning a profit!

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Governors' Cup Prediction: Statistics You Need to Know

To give you an idea of what to expect in the current 2024 PBA Governors' Cup, we've compiled some statistics from the previous edition. Note that these figures are taken from the 2022-23 Governors' Cup as the 2023-24 iteration was cancelled.

We are also comparing the Governors' Cup instead of the recent Philippine Cup because the difference in eligibility rules for these two conferences are significant, which can lead to much different seasonal statistics:

• Overall scoring average (per team): 107.6
• Three-point shooting efficiency per team (average): 34.7%
• Free throw efficiency per team: 72.0%
• Average total rebounds per game (per team): 47.4
• Average assists per game (per team) : 22.4
• Average blocks per game (per team): 3.0
• Average turnovers per game (per team): 14.5
• Team with the highest scoring average: Converge Fiber Xers (112.7)
• Team with the highest three-point shooting efficiency: Barangay Ginebra (38.3%)
• Team with the highest free throw efficiency: Converge Fiber Xers (76.8%)
• Team with the most rebounds per game: Magnolia Hotshots (52.8)
• Team with the most assists per game: Barangay Ginebra (28.5)
• Team with the most blocks per game: Phoenix Fuelmasters (4.3)
• Team with the most fouls per game: Converge Fiber Xers (28.2)
• Team with the most turnovers per game: Converge Fiber Xers (18.6)

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In Short: How to Make the Right PBA Governors' Cup Predictions?

When making your Governors' Cup predictions, be sure to follow the tips and strategies laid out in this article. Remember to pay close attention to the star players on the teams involved, their overall form and the injuries and latest team news when making your next bets. Be sure to analyse the matchup by identifying key underlying statistics which should help guide you to a more accurate prediction of the game.

Aways be aware of the team's schedule and make a note of the marquee matchups on their fixture list. Lastly, be sure you are shopping around the different betting sites before placing your wager.  Don't hesitate to take advantage of our Governors' Cup odds comparator tool which will assist you in finding the best possible price for all of your PBA Governors' Cup bets! 

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Best odds: PBA Governors' Cup

Odds are not yet available for this competition.