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Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction & Betting Tips - WTA Australian Open
by Steve Ashfield | in Tennis Predictions
Aryna Sabalena bids to win a third successive outdoor hard court Australian Open. The final sees the top seed take on Madison Keys who is seeded 19th and has never won a Grand Slam title. Can Sabalenka win another title? Read our match prediction below.
Keys beat Iga Swiatek in the semi-finals and that was great news for her opponent in this final. The result meant Sabalenka will remain world number one regardless of the result of this match. Not since 1999 when Maria Hingis won this title has a player won three successive Australian Opens. There's a bit of a way to go to equal the record of Margaret Smith (later Court ) who won this title seven years in a row in the 1960s.
Both players have been in excellent form this year with just one loss between them. Keys is in her first final here and only her second ever Grand Slam title decider, the other being at the US Open in 2017. Will this match see a new champion crowned in Melbourne?
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The Best Betting Odds for Aryna Sabalenka v Madison Keys Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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1.29 | 3.75 |
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1.35 | 3.5 |
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1.35 | 3.5 |
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1.31 | 3.39 |
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1.3 | 3.54 |
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1.3 | 3.54 |
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1.3 | 3.7 |
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1.3 | 3.8 |
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1.32 | 3.5 |
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1.3 | 3.5 |
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1.33 | 3.4 |
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1.3 | 3.4 |
|
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Who will win the Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys match is: over 18.5 games to be played.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys game on 25/01/2025 of the current WTA Australian Open season:
- Aryna Sabalenka has a 68.38% chance to win against Madison Keys according to 1xbet ⭐ with the odds of 1.35.
- Madison Keys has a 31.62% probability of winning facing Aryna Sabalenka ⭐ with odds of 3.8 at William Hill.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Aryna Sabalenka has a 68.38 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | 68.38 % |
| Madison Keys | 31.62 % |
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Form
Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
23 Jan 2025 - WTA Australian Open
21 Jan 2025 - WTA Australian Open
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16 Jan 2025 - WTA Australian Open
14 Jan 2025 - WTA Australian Open
12 Jan 2025 - WTA Australian Open
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
23 Jan 2025 - WTA Australian Open
21 Jan 2025 - WTA Australian Open
19 Jan 2025 - WTA Australian Open
18 Jan 2025 - WTA Australian Open
16 Jan 2025 - WTA Australian Open
14 Jan 2025 - WTA Australian Open
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
2 Oct 2024 - WTA China Open
7 Sep 2023 - WTA US Open
12 Jul 2023 - WTA Wimbledon Championships
Aryna Sabalenka - Madison Keys: Form Analysis
Aryna Sabalenka has already won one title this year. The 26-year-old won the Brisbane International and has won all 11 of her matches this year. 20 in a row have been won in the Australian Open with her last defeat being in 2022 to Kaia Kanepi.
The world number one has reached this final for the loss of just one set. That came in the quarter-finals when losing the second set to 27th seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. The semi-finals saw her beat the 11th seed Paula Badosa in straight sets.
Sabalenka has never lost to Keys on a hard court.
Sabalenka leads Keys 4-1 in previous meetings, winning the last three. The most recent meeting saw her beat the American in straight sets last October. They have met twice in Grand Slam events, most famously in the 2023 US Open when Sabalenka won in three sets after losing the first 6-0. The only win for Keys came four years ago but that was achieved on a grass court in Berlin.
Keys has also won a tournament this year. After a quarter-final in Auckland, she won the Adelaide International. The American has had a tough route to this final. Four seeds have had to be beaten (Collins, Rybakina, Svitolina and Swiatek) and has had to go to a final set four times.
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Aryna Sabalenka & Madison Keys Squad Analysis
Aryna Sabalenka - Madison Keys Key Points
- Over 18.5 games have been played in three of Sabalenka's matches in this tournament
- All six matches played by Keys in this tournament have had over 18.5 games played in them.
- A tie-break would help our prediction. The last time these two players met in a Grand Slam, two were played.
- 11 of the 14 matches played by Keys this year have had over 18.5 games played in them with seven going to a final set.
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Our Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka took until 2023 to win her first Grand Slam. The Belarusian has made up for lost time and a win over Keys will make it three wins in her last four Grand Slam events. Sabalenka has won this title for the past two years and a three-peat looks very much on the cards.
Madison Keys has never beaten her opponent on this surface. This is her first final in this tournament after two previous semi-final defeats. It's been a tough fortnight for her but she is in good form. Our main Aryna Sabalenka v Madison Keys prediction is over 18.5 games to be played.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys - Other Interesting Predictions
Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys match : Frequently asked questions
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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