NFL Predictions & Betting tips

Find our free NFL prediction on who will win the title and come out on top in the main matches played in the 2024-25 American Football league. Full of information for your sports betting!

NFL 2024-25 Presentation and Predictions

The National Football League, known more commonly as the NFL, has experienced steady growth around the world and remains the most popular sport in the United States. Its events, especially the Playoffs and the Super Bowl, attract some of the highest sports betting action of the year. Although undoubtedly it is the USA which sees the most demand for the NFL, the sport is becoming increasingly popular in countries such as Mexico, the United Kingdom, Germany and South Korea. The league is composed of 32 teams from across the United States which are separated into two conferences: the American Football Conference (commonly referred to as the AFC) and the National Football Conference (NFC).

The defending champions are the Kansas City Chiefs, who beat out the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime of Super Bowl LVIII. Led by the electric Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs claimed their second championship in a row (the first team in 20 years to win back-to-back) and their third in the last five seasons. For the 49ers, their fans had to suffer another loss at the hands of the Chiefs, who they've now finished as runners-up to in 2019 and 2023.

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2024-25 NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Super Bowl LIX?

Despite being the oddsmakers’ second-favourites (co-favourites in some books) for the Super Bowl, there doesn’t appear to be that much hype around the 49ers to make a return to the big game for the 2024/25 season. They’re flying under the radar a bit, perhaps due to failing to win the Super Bowl last year, but San Francisco has been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL over the last couple of seasons. The Niners also possess arguably the best offense in the league as they led the NFL in yards per play (6.5) in 2023.

In his first full season under center, quarterback Brock Purdy put up 4,280 yards, 31 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions. The Purdy + Shanahan combination is proving deadly, as San Fran also led the league in yards per pass attempt (9.0) last season. With more experience under his belt, we’re expecting big things from the former last pick in the NFL Draft.

San Francisco has all the pieces to finally get over the hump and end their 30 year wait for another Lombardi trophy. With their young quarterback beginning to approach the realm of MVP discussion, this could very well be their year. Our prediction: San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl LIX champions!

2024-25 NFL Prediction: Odds on the favourites for Super Bowl LIX

• Kansas City Chiefs - 5.75
• San Francisco 49ers - 7.00
• Buffalo Bills - 12.00
• Houston Texans - 12.00
• Detroit Lions - 13.00
• Philadelphia Eagles - 13.00
• Baltimore Ravens - 15.00
• New York Jets - 15.00
• Dallas Cowboys - 19.00
• Cincinnati Bengals - 21.00
• Green Bay Packers - 26.00
• New Orleans Saints - 26.00

Odds taken from Bet365

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What Prediction For the 2024-25 NFL MVP Award?

Josh Allen was the only player other than Lamar Jackson to receive a first-place vote in last year’s MVP race. Only 11 wins for Buffalo and a drop-off in his passing numbers meant that it was always going to be tough for Allen to win the award. However, the 28-year-old is still one of the premier dual-threat QBs in the league, and even has a case for being the very best.

While he might not possess the agility of Lamar Jackson, Allen’s physicality and surprising speed for his size makes him an absolute nightmare for defenses in and around the goal line. His 15 rushing touchdowns last season shows what a huge edge he will have over more traditional pocket passers when it comes to MVP voting.

If we see a bounce back in his passing stats, Allen should be able to capture his first MVP award. Our prediction: Josh Allen 2024-25 Most Valuable Player!

2024-25 NFL prediction: Odds on the favourites for the MVP

• Patrick Mahomes - 4.00
• Josh Allen - 5.50
• CJ Stroud - 6.50
• Jalen Hurts - 13.00
• Aaron Rodgers - 17.00
• Joe Burrow - 21.00
• Lamar Jackson - 21.00
• Brock Purdy - 21.00
• Kyler Murray - 23.00
• Dak Prescott - 26.00
• Baker Mayfield - 31.00
• Jared Goff - 31.00

Odds provided by Bet365

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Beginner’s Guide to How the NFL Works

The regular season consists of 18 game weeks that sees each team playing a total of 17 games which includes one off-week (referred to as a bye-week). The majority of games take place on Sunday but a usual NFL schedule would see one Thursday game and one Monday game as well. The NFL regular season officially kicks-off in the beginning of September after a few weeks of non-competitive pre-season games for each team.

Upon the conclusion of the regular season, the 14 top teams (seven from each conference) compete in the playoffs which is a single-elimination tournament structure that begins in the middle of January. The teams are matched up based on their regular season record and subsequent seeding, which sees the top team from each conference earn a bye-week in the first round and progress automatically to the second round of the playoffs. In total, each conference has three rounds to determine the two teams that will face-off in the Super Bowl, the league’s championship game which is played at a predetermined stadium on the second Sunday of February.

This differs from most other sports such as football and basketball, whose playoff matches can see multiple legs or a best of seven series. The structure makes the NFL postseason one of the most exciting and drama-filled sporting events of the year as even the league’s best team can be sent packing due to a bad day at the office.

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How to Make Good Predictions on NFL Games?

Below we've come up with five habits you can implement into your own NFL prediction process to greatly increase your chances of a successful bet.

• Identify key betting numbers
• Consider the form of the teams
• Analyze detailed statistics 
• Look for early betting lines
• Compare odds across bookmakers

Adding these into your process is sure to help you out in the long run. Let's look at each in more detail:

1. Identify key betting numbers

Not all spreads are created equal. Due to the scoring system in the NFL where a touchdown is awarded six points (followed by an extra point attempt for a possible total of seven), a field goal is worth three points, and the less common safety is worth two points, there exists certain key numbers in NFL point spreads and other less important numbers sometimes referred to as “dead” numbers. In order to maximize your NFL betting profits, it's vital to understand the different strategies involving these numbers and how you can take advantage of them to put yourself in the best position to make money in this exciting sport.

Most importantly, what are the key numbers? The primary key NFL point spread betting number is 3 points. The NFL sees its highest frequency of games decided by this margin and it’s quite common to see a number of different games every week either on a 3 point spread exactly or hovering around at +/-2.5 and +/-3.5. Next up, the second most common margin of victory in the NFL and the next key number is 7 points. Again, it’s not uncommon to see multiple 7 point spreads in a gameweek although this generally requires a decent-sized skill gap between the two teams. Those are the two most important key numbers and if you take only that information with you, you’ll be ahead of most of the general betting public. There are a few other numbers that pop up, sometimes considered key numbers although certainly less common than 3 and 7. The next most common margin of victory in the NFL is 6 points and can be considered a second-tier key number.

2. Objectively consider the form of the teams

As with any sport, considering how the team is playing and the run of form that they are on is always of paramount importance. Teams can come into the season with high expectations and many analysts predict big things only to stumble out of the gate and never truly recover. Whether it’s down to a key injury or just bad locker chemistry, there are a number of factors that can influence how a team is performing on the gridiron. 

It’s up to you to analyze why these runs are happening. Is a team 3-0 because they are truly one of the conference’s best teams or have they played against the three worst teams in the league? Is an 0-3 team being undervalued by the markets after catching some unlucky breaks and close defeats? Try to analyze every game on a case-by-case basis and remember that the betting public will often fall into the trap of overreacting to trends. Some trends may be warranted but others might simply be knee jerk reactions. These types of situations can often provide prime opportunities to either fade an over-performing team or back an under-performing team.

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3. Analyze detailed statistics

While not as “stat-obsessed” as sports such as the MLB, there are plenty of useful statistics you can take into account that are sure to help your NFL predictions. Statistics such as efficiency ratings, turnover margin and yards per play are much better metrics to gauge a team’s offensive capabilities rather than solely looking at the points scored. American football is a sport with a huge amount of variance. A freak fumble on the goalline can undo a previous excellent drive by a team, resulting in no points scored but efficient offensive numbers. Therefore, look to judge a team’s offensive firepower by yards per play which should paint a much better picture of what a team is capable of.

DVOA has become a very popular statistic for NFL handicappers over recent seasons. DVOA, or “defense-adjusted value over average,” is used to determine a team’s success against the opposing team’s defense as well as the down and the distance of each play. In essence, this is used to create the framework for how efficient a team is on a play-by-play basis. It is an excellent reference for bettors to look to when comparing a matchup between two teams.

4. Look for early betting lines

If you’re looking to bet on the favorite, it can often be beneficial to lock your bets in as soon as the lines open. The point spreads for the following weekend's games usually posted immediately following the Sunday slate of games. There are even some bookmakers that will post next week’s lines before the current week has been played. This can create some profitable opportunities to bet a favorable line before it moves due to heavy public betting action. 

For example, teams that have a strong performance in the current week's games will often see their betting line for the next week move rather significantly. Therefore, if you like a team’s next matchup on the schedule and you think they’ll have an easy time getting a win in their current week’s game, you might want to lock that future bet in early.

Conversely, if you like the underdog in a matchup, it is often in your best interest to wait as late as possible to confirm your bet. The public tends to overvalue favorites and undervalue underdogs, leading to situations where holding off on pulling the trigger can earn you an extra half point or full point on the spread. 

5. Compare odds across bookmakers

Having a wide selection of sportsbooks to choose from will make you a more profitable bettor over the long run. Not all sportsbooks are created equal and many of them have their advantages and disadvantages. The leading online sportsbooks can vary significantly in the odds that they offer their users. Even if it’s a difference that appears small at first glance, such as the Bills at 1.80 odds to beat the Ravens on one sportsbook and odds of 1.95 on the other. If you were to bet each side 100 times at €10 each, this 0.15 change in the odds would be the difference between winning €800 and €950. 

Not only that, but you will also be able to benefit from bookmaker’s welcome bonuses, many of which can see you receive a 100% bonus on your first deposit! To check out the best welcome bonuses out there currently, visit our best betting sites page.

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What Not to Do For Your NFL Predictions

There are a few things you will want to avoid in order to maximize your profitability when betting on the National Football League. Here are a few examples of what to look out for:

• Disregarding “key numbers” for point spread betting.
• Making a habit of buying points on the point spread; this is often not worth it in the long run.
• Not double checking the location of the game (the NFL has five overseas games being played this season). 
• Chasing your losses (ex. Betting triple your normal amount to ‘make up for’ two previous losses).
• Not practicing proper bankroll management (you should have a fixed bet amount within your overall betting funds). 
• Not comparing bookmakers to find the best possible odds on the market for your bet.
• Betting strictly on a team’s name and reputation and not accounting for recent performance and form.
• Only looking at final scores of previous games and not digging deeper into the underlying statistics.
• Disregarding the betting odds and not understanding the implied probability behind them.
• Blindly betting on your favorite team.

The above pitfalls have certainly affected more than a few beginner and experienced bettors alike. If you can eliminate these negative habits from your betting process and approach each game with clear, rational analysis, you’ll greatly increase your chances of turning a profit!

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NFL Prediction: Statistics You Need to Know

Here we’ve compiled some interesting statistics from the previous 2023-24 season to keep in mind when analyzing your next NFL predictions: 

• The average points scored per team across all 32 squads was 21.76 in the 2024-25 season.
• There was an average of 43.51 points scored per game last season.
• 14 of the 32 teams last season saw their final average winning margin fall between +3.0 and -3.0 points.
• AFC teams won 56.5% of their home games in 2023-24.
• NFC teams won 55.13% of their home games.
• The Detroit Lions were the best team against the spread (including postseason) in 2023-24 with a record of 14-6 (70.0% cover rate).
• The Kansas City Chiefs (65.0%) and the LA Rams (64.7%) were second and third, respectively, in spread cover percentage.
• 46.37% of games last season, including the postseason, finished over the posted points total.
• 53.63% of games last season finished under the posted total.
• The Cowboys were the league’s highest scoring team last season with an average of 30.1 points per game.
• The Cowboys were also the highest scoring team in the first half last season with an average of 16.8 points.
• The Patriots and the Panthers were the lowest scoring teams at just 13.9 points per game.
• The Browns finished with the highest “over” percentage in the league (66.7%) with 12 of their 18 games eclipsing the posted total.
• The Panthers and the Chargers were tied for the lowest “over” percentage (29.4%) with just five of their 17 games going over. 

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In Short: How to Make the Right NFL Predictions?

By following the advice laid out on this page, you should be well-prepared to tackle the 2024-25 NFL season. Remember to keep the five successful habits in mind when you are looking at each game: identifying key betting numbers, analysing team and player form, analysing statistics, looking for early betting lines and shopping around for the best odds across bookmakers. By following these steps, you'll already be well ahead of the game! It's also important to follow the season closely so you are always up to date with the latest trades, injuries and trends.

Short on time? It's understandable, especially with so many games every weekend. That's where our experts can help you out. SportyTrader's dedicated tipsters meticulously break down each matchup to provide you with valuable data and information that you can use for your own bets. You'll find all of the available previews for the NFL at the top of this page, all 100% free of charge!

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