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Alexandre Muller vs Sebastian Baez Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Rio Open
by Daniel Ngulu | in Tennis Predictions
Fifth seed Sebastian Baez, the defending Rio Open champion, will face off with the unseeded Alexandre Muller in this year’s final. This match will mark their first career meeting. Read on to find our analysis for this match as well as our two likely predictions.
Baez defeated compatriot Ugo Carabelli to progress to the championship match while Muller got the better of Francisco Comesana. Aside from confirming the 500 points on offer throughout the tournament, Muller and Baez are also battling for the USD 448,090 cash prize.
This is Baez’s first final of the season and Muller’s second. Muller is also contesting his first-ever final at the ATP 500 level. As the defending champion, Baez is favoured by the bookies to retain his crown. He is also the more accomplished tour player in this tie as he has won multiple tour titles. Muller and Baez are both clay court specialists and are likely to play out a crunching tie.
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The Best Betting Odds for Alexandre Muller v Sebastian Baez Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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2.38 | 1.57 |
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2.3 | 1.55 |
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2.35 | 1.6 |
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2.35 | 1.6 |
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2.36 | 1.58 |
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2.34 | 1.6 |
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2.34 | 1.6 |
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2.34 | 1.6 |
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2.37 | 1.54 |
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2.37 | 1.57 |
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2.3 | 1.62 |
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2.35 | 1.57 |
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2.3 | 1.6 |
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2.43 | 1.56 |
|
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Who will win the Alexandre Muller vs Sebastian Baez Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Alexandre Muller vs Sebastian Baez match is: Sebastian Baez wins the match.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Alexandre Muller vs Sebastian Baez game on 23/02/2025 of the current ATP Rio Open season:
- Alexandre Muller has a 42.53% chance to win against Sebastian Baez according to Unibet ⭐ with the odds of 2.43.
- Sebastian Baez has a 57.47% probability of winning facing Alexandre Muller ⭐ with odds of 1.62 at William Hill.
Alexandre Muller vs Sebastian Baez Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Alexandre Muller has a 42.53 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Alexandre Muller | 42.53 % |
| Sebastian Baez | 57.47 % |
Alexandre Muller vs Sebastian Baez Form
Alexandre Muller and Sebastian Baez Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
22 Feb 2025 - ATP Rio Open
21 Feb 2025 - ATP Rio Open
20 Feb 2025 - ATP Rio Open
18 Feb 2025 - ATP Rio Open
10 Feb 2025 - ATP Buenos Aires
3 Feb 2025 - ATP Challenger Rosario, Argentina Men Singles
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
22 Feb 2025 - ATP Rio Open
21 Feb 2025 - ATP Rio Open
19 Feb 2025 - ATP Rio Open
18 Feb 2025 - ATP Rio Open
12 Feb 2025 - ATP Buenos Aires
11 Feb 2025 - ATP Buenos Aires
Alexandre Muller - Sebastian Baez: Form Analysis
Alexandre Muller battled through three sets to defeat the unseeded Comesana who had previously stunned top seed Alexander Zverev. The Frenchman has been in great form this week as it is only against Comesana that he surrendered his first set.
Advancing to his second final of the season has propelled him a massive 19 places to 41st in the live ranking, a new career-high world ranking. Muller won in Hong Kong back in January to claim his first-ever tour crown.
Before his success in that ATP 250 tournament, Muller had contested one other final, losing in Marrakech in 2023. The 28-year-old has compiled a 9-3 record and is 4-2 on clay.
Muller faces definding Rio champion, having dropped just one set.
Sebastian Baez triumphed in Rio last season to claim his first-ever ATP 500 title. He has been in great shape in his title defence and through four matches, has dropped just two sets.
Baez defeated lucky loser Carabelli by coming from a set down in their semi-final duel. The Argentine has been in great form since switching to his favoured clay surface.
He has compiled an 8-4 record with all eight wins being registered in the Golden Swing. Baez has dropped eight places in the live ranking to 39th despite making it to this week’s final. This is because he has lost 170 ranking points.
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Alexandre Muller & Sebastian Baez Squad Analysis
Alexandre Muller is right-handed and possesses a powerful two-handed backhand. He plays mostly at the baseline as he is quick and agile. On clay, his favoured surface to play on, the true aspects of his game come out visibly.
The Rio final will feature two right-handed players.
Sebastian Baez is also right-handed and has a powerful two-handed backhand as one of his best weapons. A clay court specialist, the Argentine has an aggressive style of play with strong groundstrokes in his armoury. As one of the shortest players in the tour, he makes up for what he lacks in height with speed.
Alexandre Muller - Sebastian Baez Key Points
- Baez has won nine straight matches in Rio.
- Five of the six tour finals Baez has won have been on clay.
- Muller has lost close to 150 matches on clay in his career.
- Baez has won five straight tour finals.
- Muller lost one of the two tour finals he has contested.
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Our Alexandre Muller vs Sebastian Baez Prediction
Our prediction for Alexandre Muller v Sebastian Baez is that Sebastian Baez wins the match. Baez is the defending champion in Rio and has won nine straight matches in this event. He is also on a winning streak when it comes to championship matches.
The Argentine won the last five finals he contested, with four being on clay. However, we don't expect Muller to give him an easy pass, and we might see a decider required to separate them. As the more accomplished tour player, Baez should be able to find a way to defend his title.
Alexandre Muller vs Sebastian Baez - Other Interesting Predictions
Muller to win opening set
In our second prediction, we will back Muller to win the opening set. Muller has won the first set in each of his matches this week. Baez on the other hand has relinquished the first set five times so far this season.
Get a retirement guarantee for the Alexandre Muller vs. Sebastian Baez game!
When you place a bet on the match between Alexandre Muller and Sebastian Baez you can get a retirement guarantee with bet365. This means that your bet will be paid out as a winner if your opponent retires.
It does not matter whether you bet on Alexandre Muller or Sebastian Baez , if your opponent has to retire from the match with an injury, you will get paid as a winner!
Alexandre Muller vs Sebastian Baez match : Frequently asked questions
This match will be played on Sunday 23 February.
This match will be played on Centre Court at the Jockey Club Brasileiro (Hipódromo da Gávea) in Rio, Brazil.
UK fans can follow the Rio Open final live on Sky Sports. Live minute-by-minute updates of the ATP Rio De Janeiro will also be available on Sportytrader.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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